Document type: scientific article published in Veterinary and Animal Science
Authors: Evija Skujina, Irina Pilvere
Abstract in French (translation): Trends in Live Cattle Exports and Structural Heterogeneity Among European Union Member States, 2014–2024: A Cluster Analysis
The European Union (EU) cattle sector is facing major structural reforms linked to the implementation of the “Farm to Fork” strategy under the European Green Deal and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for 2023–2027. This study examines trends in live cattle exports and cattle herd dynamics across the 23 EU Member States over the 2014–2024 period. Several EU Member States have experienced notable annual fluctuations in live cattle exports relative to their cattle herds. Long-term growth trends in exports and live cattle herds were applied to a time series. Export intensity and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) indicator were applied to a time series. In addition, hierarchical analysis and K-means cluster analysis were used to identify differences among the 23 EU member states.
The analysis revealed divergent trends: while exports of live cattle increased by 58% (from 2.26 billion euros to 3.58 billion euros), the total cattle herd declined by 8.6% (from 76.2 to 69.7 million head). Three distinct groups of EU member states were identified: (1) countries with high export intensity and a declining cattle herd; (2) countries showing rapid growth in live cattle exports from a low baseline herd size (growth-oriented group); and (3) countries with low live cattle export intensity and a focus on the domestic market. These results suggest heterogeneity within the 23 EU member states in the cattle sector and raise concerns about long-term competition in the area of live cattle exports.
From Discussion: A methodological consideration led to the exclusion of France from the final clustering analysis. Hierarchical clustering consistently classified France as a statistical outlier due to the exceptionally high value of its exports and the size of its cattle herd. Including France would have affected the homogeneity of the clusters and reduced the interpretability of the results. Nevertheless, France plays a structurally important role in the EU’s cattle farming sector and deserves special attention in policy debates, given its scale and central role in European livestock production.
Preview:
The European Union (EU) cattle sector is facing major structural reforms related to the implementation of the European Green Deal Farm to Fork Strategy and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023–2027. This study examines changes in the export of live bovine animals and cattle population dynamics across the EU–23 Member States over the period 2014–2024. Several EU Member States experienced notable year-to-year fluctuations in live bovine animal exports relative to cattle populations. The export and live bovine animal population long-term growth trends were applied to a time series. Export Intensity and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) indicator were applied to a time series. In addition, hierarchical and K – means cluster analysis were used to identify differences between EU-23 Member States.
The analysis revealed a decoupled dynamic: while live bovine animal export increased by 58% (from EUR 2.26 billion to EUR 3.58 billion), the total cattle population declined by 8.6% (from 76.2 to 69.7 million head). Three distinct clusters of EU Member States were identified: (1) countries with high export intensity and declining cattle population; (2) countries with rapid export growth of live bovine animals from low baseline cattle population (growth-driven cluster); and (3) countries with low live bovine animal export intensity and domestic market orientation.
These findings suggest the presence of heterogeneity within the EU–23 Member States in the EU cattle sector and raise concerns regarding long-term competition in live bovine animal exports.
A consideration of methodology France is exclusion from the final cluster analysis. Hierarchical clustering consistently classified France as a statistical outlier, exceptionally high export value and cattle population. France including would have affected the homogeneity of the clusters and reduced the interpretability of the results. Nevertheless, France is structurally significant in the EU cattle farming sector and deserves separate consideration in policy discussions, given its scale and central role in European livestock production.
